Jacksonville, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

185
FXUS62 KJAX 150445
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1245 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1241 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

West to Northwest steering flow today will continue hot and humid
conditions with Max Temps reaching into the middle 90s over all
inland areas, and into the lower 90s along the Atlantic Coastal
Areas and I-95 corridor due to the delayed onset of the East Coast
sea breeze pushing inland into the US-17/I-95 corridors during the
late afternoon hours. This pattern combined with PWATs around 2
inches will support scattered showers and storms during the
afternoon and early evening hours, storm motion will be towards
the East at 10-15 mph and some strong storms will be possible as
they collide with the East Coast sea breeze with gusty winds to
40-60 mph possible along with heavy downpours before they push
into the Atlantic Coastal waters around sunset. Rainfall chances
end over inland areas around sunset as well with muggy overnight
lows and fair skies as Min temps only fall into the mid/upper 70s
inland and around 80F along the Atlantic Coastal areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1241 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025

What`s left of a weakening frontal boundary approaches the area on
Saturday, settling diffusely over the area through Sunday, keeping
coverage for showers and thunderstorms more numerous through the
short term period. This boundary will also shift the flow towards
a more north to northeasterly direction, which will strengthen
Sunday as a ridge of high pressure pushes down the eastern
seaboard and towards northeast FL. Juicy airmass will certainly be
in place for very heavy rainfall and a localized flooding threat
with PWATs in the 2-2.3 inch range, prompting a "marginal" risk of
excessive rainfall via the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), in
which would not be surprised if this risk increases to "slight"
over the next 12 to 24 hours on either day. Rather warm temps
aloft and usual very low shear will keep strong to severe storm
threat generally low, though as with most summertime convection, a
few isolated stronger cells capable of wet downbursts around 40 to
50 mph will be possible primarily with storm mergers/boundary
collisions. Showery activity will likely persist near the coasts
during the nighttime hours as well through the weekend with an
almost nor`easter type of setup, especially on Sunday with a
modestly stronger flow. Temps will remain a bit above normal
Saturday - especially inland: Highs in the mid 90s expected inland
with low 90s near the coast. Lows fall into the mid to upper 70s
SAturday Night. Sunday will be closer to normal with low 90s
forecast and upper 80s by the immediate coast, falling into the
low to mid 70s inland and upper 70s at the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 1241 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025

Some drier air starts to mix in for the start of the work week
next week, which looks to taper rain chances a bit over the area
through most of the long term period, especially over interior GA.
This will be thanks to weak ridging holding on down the southeast
US coast, which will also help to recurve Hurricane Erin well to
the east of the Florida Peninsula through mid to late week. The
gradient between the ridge and Hurricane Erin well offshore is
also expected to keep a breezy northeasterly flow continuing for
early to mid next week. Another front looks to approach the region
by around the Thursday time frame next week. Temps near or
slightly above climo will be expected most of the long term,
possibly moving towards further above normal by late in this
period ahead of the front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025

VFR conds through the early morning hours, then some SCT Cu
possible in the 2000-3000ft range during the mid morning hours in
the 13-15Z time frame, but MVFR probs are too low for any
inclusion in the TAF sets at this time. Rainfall chances generally
in the 20-40% range, and could include PROB30 groups, but previous
TAF forecast package has left them out, so will continue to just
advertise VCTS during the 18-24Z time frame with light W-NW winds
at inland TAF sites, while a weak sea breeze will push inland past
SSI/CRG/SGJ during the afternoon hours. Following any convection
chances, expect VFR conds during the rest of the TAF period after
00-02Z time frame with just lingering VFR mid/high clouds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1241 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025

High pressure ridge centered across the central Florida peninsula
will drift southward through Saturday as a trough develops over
the southeastern states. Prevailing southwest to south winds are
forecast as this surface trough settles over our local waters on
Saturday, with the trough remaining nearly stationary over the
region through the weekend. Unsettled weather will develop over
the weekend with showers and thunderstorms likely. Northeast winds
develop late Sunday and continue into Monday as the trough shifts
slowly south. Seas will begin to increase early next week as long
period swells start to arrive from Hurricane Erin and Small Craft
Advisories are expected by late Monday into Tuesday.

Rip Currents: A marginal Moderate Rip Current Risk Today and
Saturday with surf/breakers around 2 ft or less with a weaker S to
SE sea breeze along the Atlantic beaches during the
afternoon/evening hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  96  75  94  74 /  30  20  60  30
SSI  92  79  91  78 /  30  20  50  40
JAX  96  77  95  76 /  40  20  70  40
SGJ  93  77  93  77 /  30  20  60  40
GNV  96  76  96  75 /  50  30  80  30
OCF  96  76  95  76 /  40  30  80  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-
     140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-
     522-533-633.

GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for GAZ136-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

AM...None.
&&

$$