Jacksonville, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

083
FXUS62 KJAX 300552
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
152 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...HEAVY RAIN AND INCREASING FLOOD RISK WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 603 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Adjusted temperatures down slightly as rain has cooled
temperatures in the area by a few degrees. other than that,
forecast is on track with rain and thunderstorms continuing into
the evening hours.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(through Tonight)...

Currently, showers and isolated storms linger around the Big Bend
area as a vort lobe rotates southward around an Tropical Upper
Tropospheric Trough (TUTT). Plentiful moisture and low level
southwesterly flow may push low-topped scattered showers and
potentially an isolated storm inland toward the I-75 corridor in
north central FL through the predawn hours. Otherwise, upper level
dry air will push in from the east, around the poleward-side of
the TUTT, scouring out the broken high clouds in place.

After daybreak, moist low level steering flow coming from the
Gulf will push inland across NE FL through the late morning and
early afternoon hours, triggering scattered to numerous showers
and storms as pushes northward. Due to some lingering cloud cover,
temperatures will be a bit cooler today especially across the
Suwannee Valley. Less heating and some dry air offered up by the
TUTT, should limit instability and PoPs in 50-70% range this
afternoon. However, note that with PWATs around 2 inches, heavy
downpours with significant rain rates (3-5" per hour) may lead to
isolated flooding, especially in poor drainage areas. The focus
for flooding potential will be portions of the Suwannee Valley and
along the I-95 corridor in NE FL and SE GA where outflows will
interact with the pinned Atlc sea breeze. After sundown, there
will be a few lingering storms, perhaps clusters of storms,
developing along outflows in SE GA that will begin to fade through
the late evening and dissipate by midnight.

Tonight, coastal convergence and opening upper trough along the
Big Bend will keep convection going overnight and advect that
activity inland toward the Suwannee Valley and potentially north
of I-10 into inland SE GA. Lows will fall to the low 70s inland
and to the mid/upper 70s near the oceanfront.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday night)

Moisture associated with southwesterly flow forming ahead of a
frontal boundary pressing in from out of the northwest will be
present over the forecast area through midweek with PWAT values
over the area as high as 2.1 to 2.4 inches. Showers and storms
that form during this period are anticipated to produce heavy
amounts of rainfall which can result in localized flooding. High
pressure over the Atlantic will move further off to the east
during this period, with the westerly flow resulting in diurnal
sea breeze convergence occurring nearer to the east coast,
resulting in stronger storms developing in the vicinity of the
I-95 corridor in the afternoon. High temperatures for Tuesday and
Wednesday will rise into the 80s and lower 90s with overnight low
temperatures dropping down into the lower 70s for inland areas and
in the mid to upper 70s along the coastline.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Saturday)

The frontal boundary moving into the region from out of the
northwest is expected to stall over the forecast area by the end
of the week and into the weekend with drier air expected to advect
into southeast Georgia resulting in higher chances for convection
over northeast Florida, ahead of the dry air boundary. Forecast
models indicate a chance for a low pressure system to form ahead
of the frontal boundary with a low end chance for it to develop
into a cyclonic system, however it is still too early to say with
certainty if this forecast will maintain through the next few
days. High temperatures through the end of the week and into the
weekend will trend near the seasonal average with temps rising
into the upper 80s and lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFs)...

Mostly VFR conditions prevail, aside from VERY localized
restrictions (at KVQQ). Dry air aloft will scour high clouds from
east to west through day break, bringing nearly SKC conditions.
Later this morning, around 15z showers will begin to push from the
Gulf toward KGNV and then progress to eastward where pulse TSRA
will develop along the Atlc sea breeze between 18z-21z, impacting
airfields along the I-95 corridor. Remnant showers may continue
to work toward the oceanfront through 00z tonight with activity
diminishing thereafter. Potential for IFR/LIFR visibility will be
possible with heavy downpours associated with afternoon
convection. Near the Atlc coast, the sea breeze will turn the
winds ESE this afternoon while elsewhere winds will favor a SSW
direction at or below 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...

Latest buoy observations, reading around 1-2 feet with
southwesterly winds around 5 knots nearshore and 10 knots
offshore.

Offshore flow continues through Thursday as the Bermuda ridge
stays situated to the south and an unseasonable cool front
approaches from the northwest. Offshore winds will increase to
Caution levels offshore this evening hours and again Tuesday
evening in response to the approaching boundary. Strong afternoon
thunderstorms are possible over the next several afternoons
across the nearshore waters. Late this week a weak low pressure
system may organize over the region along the leftover boundary.
Please stay tuned to the latest National Hurricane Center outlooks
for any potential tropical low pressure development along this
leftover boundary.

RIP CURRENTS: Moderate risk continues during the afternoon with
the development of the sea breeze and 2-3 foot breakers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  71  88  71 /  80  50  80  30
SSI  88  75  88  76 /  70  40  70  40
JAX  90  72  91  73 /  80  30  80  30
SGJ  88  72  89  73 /  80  30  70  30
GNV  85  69  89  71 /  80  30  80  30
OCF  85  71  88  73 /  80  30  80  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$